On October 4th I wrote the HP is a $5.00 stock and I want to thank the management in helping me with my prediction.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/h-p-takes-big-hit-on-accounting-improprieties-at-autonomy/
HP announced today that it has taken a $8.8B accounting charge to discount the value of a $9.7B investment of Autonomy last year.
The takeover was the brainchild of Léo Apotheker, H.P.’s chief executive at the time, and was criticized within Silicon Valley as a hugely expensive blunder.
“I’m both stunned and disappointed to learn of Autonomy’s alleged accounting improprieties,” Mr. Apotheker said in a statement. “The developments are a shock to the many who believed in the company, myself included. ”
HP is truly the laughingstock of Silicon Valley and Wall Street. I am highly confident that many many former employees screamed not to do this deal and were let go for not being team players.
The bottom line is that HP sucks....As a compnay, as a product and as a future. More to come, I am certain.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Friday, November 16, 2012
Twinkie Defense is Dead....(but who owns the Brand)
http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/16/news/economy/hostess-jobs/
Hostess Brands was in bankruptcy. The bakers union decided to strike. The owners shut the company down and liquidate. 18,000 people are out of work. Wow.........
First off: I would like to congratulate the management team for this very difficult decision.
Second off: Once again Unions are driving nails into the coffin. Striking a company that is in bankruptcy is just about a dumb as juggling a lite chainsaw while jumping on a pogo stick.
Third off, Who is going to swoop in and buy the assets and the brand?
Recently there was a strike by a local grocery store called Raley's. I hated shopping at Raley's before the strike because of the slow cashiers and the high prices. During the strike, which lasted about 2 weeks, we only shopped there. Now that the strike is over, we will go back to shopping at Walmart.
If I could point at the 2 most destructive forces on our economy, I would say unions and municipal pensions.
Hostess Brands was in bankruptcy. The bakers union decided to strike. The owners shut the company down and liquidate. 18,000 people are out of work. Wow.........
First off: I would like to congratulate the management team for this very difficult decision.
Second off: Once again Unions are driving nails into the coffin. Striking a company that is in bankruptcy is just about a dumb as juggling a lite chainsaw while jumping on a pogo stick.
Third off, Who is going to swoop in and buy the assets and the brand?
Recently there was a strike by a local grocery store called Raley's. I hated shopping at Raley's before the strike because of the slow cashiers and the high prices. During the strike, which lasted about 2 weeks, we only shopped there. Now that the strike is over, we will go back to shopping at Walmart.
If I could point at the 2 most destructive forces on our economy, I would say unions and municipal pensions.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
California Raises Taxes to Pay Wall Street
Condensed News Report:
http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/Prop-30-funds-for-UC-will-go-to-Wall-Street-4031472.php
Full Report:
http://publicsociology.berkeley.edu/publications/swapping/swapping.pdf
"In other words, the UC Regents forgot the first rule of casino gambling: The house always wins. Now the rest of us are paying the price.
It's hard to overstate the cost to students and taxpayers of UC management's financial strategies. In recent years, the Regents have overseen a threefold increase in in-state tuition, declining in-state enrollment, reduced course offerings and draconian cuts imposed on UC workers. They also have continued to increase the number of university executives making more than $200,000 annually.
Even with the passage of Proposition 30, the regents warn of more cuts and tuition increases in the near future."
Sunday, November 11, 2012
City of Atherton, California Extorts $350K From Facebook
http://allfacebook.com/atherton-350k_b104146
Extortion and Bribery are alive and well in California.
According to The Bay Citizen, the one-time payment by Facebook was agreed upon as compensation for the increased traffic at the intersection of Marsh and Middlefield roads, located about five miles from the social network’s new headquarters, and the town is exploring ways to expand the intersection, such as removing a roadside drainage channel and adding an extra turn lane.
Extortion and Bribery are alive and well in California.
According to The Bay Citizen, the one-time payment by Facebook was agreed upon as compensation for the increased traffic at the intersection of Marsh and Middlefield roads, located about five miles from the social network’s new headquarters, and the town is exploring ways to expand the intersection, such as removing a roadside drainage channel and adding an extra turn lane.
Mayor Bill Widmer told The Bay Citizen:
We’re not in a big hurry to spend the money.
How about spending the money on the %$&#& road you are so worried about jerk.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Lance Armstrong's Kindergarten Grades to be Reviewed
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/armstrongs-marathon-results-likely-erased-192013026--spt.html
Lance Armstrong's fall was faster than Facebook after the IPO and the lost valuation of his brand is huge.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Hewlett Packard is a $5.00 Stock.
Here is an interesting article on the recent timeline of Hewlett Packard.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505250_162-57525464/key-moments-in-hewlett-packards-recent-history/
It is interesting to note that the timeline starts with the announcement to purchase Compaq Computers in Sept of 2001 rather than the hire date of Carly Fiorina in July of 1999.
It should be noted that when a large portion of stakeholders are screaming, "NO". It should be listened to. The Compaq merger proxy vote gathered just a little over 50% support from HPQ. That means just under 50% thought it was a bad idea.
Meg Whitman was recently quoted
"I'm confident that 2013 will be the bottom of the turnaround and then you can look forward to good growth in 2014 and 2015 as those products kick in," she told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" program. "The investments we're making in things like (information technology) systems, in our sales organization, in training, those things will start to kick in and I really think 2014 is going to be quite a bright year for H-P."
There is no reason to believe any of this is more that a desperate attempt to find...IT. I do not mean Information Technology but rather the next IT. The next wave of technology that will keep moving forward.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505250_162-57525464/key-moments-in-hewlett-packards-recent-history/
It is interesting to note that the timeline starts with the announcement to purchase Compaq Computers in Sept of 2001 rather than the hire date of Carly Fiorina in July of 1999.
It should be noted that when a large portion of stakeholders are screaming, "NO". It should be listened to. The Compaq merger proxy vote gathered just a little over 50% support from HPQ. That means just under 50% thought it was a bad idea.
Meg Whitman was recently quoted
"I'm confident that 2013 will be the bottom of the turnaround and then you can look forward to good growth in 2014 and 2015 as those products kick in," she told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" program. "The investments we're making in things like (information technology) systems, in our sales organization, in training, those things will start to kick in and I really think 2014 is going to be quite a bright year for H-P."
There is no reason to believe any of this is more that a desperate attempt to find...IT. I do not mean Information Technology but rather the next IT. The next wave of technology that will keep moving forward.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
The Seven Habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/01/02/the-seven-habits-of-spectacularly-unsuccessful-executives/
I found this article the other day when I was checking the stock price of Yahoo. (No Joke)
I thought it was very good even thought the...." 7 habits of.....(fill in the blanks)" is by now warn weary.
Re: Yahoo....I am not sure where all this internal leaking of detail regarding Mayer's tenure and decisions are coming from, but it can not be good for confidence levels to have this information in the news every week.
Also, I think the stock market has voted on the likely success Yahoo will have under Mayer. I think it is probably too late for Mayer to review Habit #4 anyways.
I found this article the other day when I was checking the stock price of Yahoo. (No Joke)
I thought it was very good even thought the...." 7 habits of.....(fill in the blanks)" is by now warn weary.
Re: Yahoo....I am not sure where all this internal leaking of detail regarding Mayer's tenure and decisions are coming from, but it can not be good for confidence levels to have this information in the news every week.
Also, I think the stock market has voted on the likely success Yahoo will have under Mayer. I think it is probably too late for Mayer to review Habit #4 anyways.
End of Sept
S and P 500 14.56%
Buy List 10.24%
Covered Call List is 8.43%
No October Options bought either.
Buy List 10.24%
Covered Call List is 8.43%
No October Options bought either.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
August +1 Final
I realized this morning that I did not update the buy list through August. So I will do it now.
S&P 500 11.72%
Buy List 9.63%
Option List 8.62%
Do recall that the option list has rarely had more than 50% invested. Right now we are 25% invested.
S&P 500 11.72%
Buy List 9.63%
Option List 8.62%
Do recall that the option list has rarely had more than 50% invested. Right now we are 25% invested.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Public pension funds stung by Facebook's falling stock
Really????
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0901-facebook-pensions-20120901,0,444913.story
This article is about public pension funds buying Facebook at the IPO and......(well you know the story..)
Where were the risk managers?
The California Public Employees' Retirement System, the country's largest public pension, refused to reveal how many shares it bought in the IPO. CalPERS had 557,140 Facebook shares on May 23 and more than doubled its stake to 1.3 million shares as of this week, according to a spokeswoman.
The California State Teachers' Retirement System bought about 500,000 shares in the IPO — worth about $19 million — and sold them when the price briefly popped on the first day. CalSTRS made about $250,000 on the sale, a spokesman said.
CalSTRS has since loaded up on 1.2 million Facebook shares, a stake that has cost the pension fund about $17 million in paper losses, a spokesman said.
"As a patient, long-term investor with a 30-year investment horizon we believe that over time, the stock and the company should perform well," CalSTRS spokesman Michael Sicilia said in an email.
Not only are government agencies criminals in their pension obligations, They are day-trading what they have left.
If you read the comment by CalSTRS spokesman...."with a 30 year investment horizon..." and then the paragraph that states "...and sold them when the price briefly popped on the first day. CalSTRS made about $250,000 on the sale, a spokesman said." I would like to know if they were the same spokesman?
In the paragraph regarding the stake held by CalPERS. It sounds like they are trying to dollar cost average their way out of a loss. That only works if the stock drops and then rises. If the stock drops and then keeps dropping then you just plain lose.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0901-facebook-pensions-20120901,0,444913.story
This article is about public pension funds buying Facebook at the IPO and......(well you know the story..)
Where were the risk managers?
The California Public Employees' Retirement System, the country's largest public pension, refused to reveal how many shares it bought in the IPO. CalPERS had 557,140 Facebook shares on May 23 and more than doubled its stake to 1.3 million shares as of this week, according to a spokeswoman.
The California State Teachers' Retirement System bought about 500,000 shares in the IPO — worth about $19 million — and sold them when the price briefly popped on the first day. CalSTRS made about $250,000 on the sale, a spokesman said.
CalSTRS has since loaded up on 1.2 million Facebook shares, a stake that has cost the pension fund about $17 million in paper losses, a spokesman said.
"As a patient, long-term investor with a 30-year investment horizon we believe that over time, the stock and the company should perform well," CalSTRS spokesman Michael Sicilia said in an email.
Not only are government agencies criminals in their pension obligations, They are day-trading what they have left.
If you read the comment by CalSTRS spokesman...."with a 30 year investment horizon..." and then the paragraph that states "...and sold them when the price briefly popped on the first day. CalSTRS made about $250,000 on the sale, a spokesman said." I would like to know if they were the same spokesman?
In the paragraph regarding the stake held by CalPERS. It sounds like they are trying to dollar cost average their way out of a loss. That only works if the stock drops and then rises. If the stock drops and then keeps dropping then you just plain lose.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
How to kill your own business model...
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-08-28/markets/33439500_1_lexmark-market-for-inkjet-printers-inkjet-products
Lexmark announces that they are exiting the printer business..
“It’s symptomatic of an industry that’s under a lot of pressure,” De Silva said. “It’s sort of the culmination of [Lexmark’s] strategy, to exit inkjet altogether. People are printing and printing less, and not just in the consumer space.”
Let us take a look at this...Without any scientific study except for my family I will tell you why people print less. Because ink cartridges are such a rip off. My children would print all day long...Music and pictures.
Printing is fun. Reading from pages is easier than reading from a computer. But our printer is only hooked up to one computer and only necessary work can be printed. It has long been noted that printer companies practically give away the printers to sell the ink cartridges and now people hate paying $30.00 for a $5.00 ink cartridge.
It reminds me a merry-go-round at the mall near my home. My children loved it, but a ride was $2.00 for about 2 minutes. We are talking about $60.00/hour for fun and that is not cheap. Usually the merry-go-round was mostly empty. They would get 1 ride only and then we stopped going near the merry-go-round because it was so expensive. Now if they lowered the price of the ride to $.50 cents, I would let the kids ride it 6 times and so would all the other parents who had some shopping to do. The ride would be filled and I would happily let my children ride the merry-go-round until they were dizzy.
It is the old reverse capitalism model. If business is slow, raise prices to make up for lost profits...
Just as I would let my children wall paper their rooms if ink did not cost so much.
Lexmark announces that they are exiting the printer business..
“It’s symptomatic of an industry that’s under a lot of pressure,” De Silva said. “It’s sort of the culmination of [Lexmark’s] strategy, to exit inkjet altogether. People are printing and printing less, and not just in the consumer space.”
Let us take a look at this...Without any scientific study except for my family I will tell you why people print less. Because ink cartridges are such a rip off. My children would print all day long...Music and pictures.
Printing is fun. Reading from pages is easier than reading from a computer. But our printer is only hooked up to one computer and only necessary work can be printed. It has long been noted that printer companies practically give away the printers to sell the ink cartridges and now people hate paying $30.00 for a $5.00 ink cartridge.
It reminds me a merry-go-round at the mall near my home. My children loved it, but a ride was $2.00 for about 2 minutes. We are talking about $60.00/hour for fun and that is not cheap. Usually the merry-go-round was mostly empty. They would get 1 ride only and then we stopped going near the merry-go-round because it was so expensive. Now if they lowered the price of the ride to $.50 cents, I would let the kids ride it 6 times and so would all the other parents who had some shopping to do. The ride would be filled and I would happily let my children ride the merry-go-round until they were dizzy.
It is the old reverse capitalism model. If business is slow, raise prices to make up for lost profits...
Just as I would let my children wall paper their rooms if ink did not cost so much.
Sunday, August 19, 2012
August/Sept Option update
S and P 500 12.77%
Buy List 11.16%
Option List 8.88%
August Options: Options Exercised on (AFL,BDX,BBBY,LUK,PG)
September, No Options sold...
We now own only 5 stocks in this account. Our cash position is $7,500,000.
and we have banked $833,000 in profits.
This August has been very strong. We may just sit on this cash until we see a correction before the election.
Buy List 11.16%
Option List 8.88%
August Options: Options Exercised on (AFL,BDX,BBBY,LUK,PG)
September, No Options sold...
We now own only 5 stocks in this account. Our cash position is $7,500,000.
and we have banked $833,000 in profits.
This August has been very strong. We may just sit on this cash until we see a correction before the election.
Friday, August 17, 2012
ETF Hell part 2
Awhile back, I wrote about my distrust of ETF's Exchange traded funds.
I pointed out UVXY as an example. At the time it was trading around $20.
It is now down to $4.97
On that point, I came across an article on ETF Deathwatch.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/804731-etf-deathwatch-august-2012-half-of-all-actively-managed-etfs-on-list
I pointed out UVXY as an example. At the time it was trading around $20.
It is now down to $4.97
On that point, I came across an article on ETF Deathwatch.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/804731-etf-deathwatch-august-2012-half-of-all-actively-managed-etfs-on-list
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Blame it on bugs....
http://news.yahoo.com/knight-seeks-financing-440-million-trading-loss-124602408--finance.html
Knight Capital Group Inc. lost $440 million in seconds yesterday after installing a new trading software.
("This issue was related to Knight's installation of trading software and resulted in Knight sending numerous erroneous orders in NYSE-listed securities into the market," Knight said. "This software has been removed from the company's systems.")
It is hard to imagine something like this not being tested and implemented on a test systems before it is rolled out.
(On July 18, Knight reported second-quarter earnings of $3.3 million, down 81 percent from a year earlier after recording a $35.4 million pretax trading loss from the Facebook initial public offering. The company has not yet filed its second-quarter report with regulators.)
I am certain someone somewhere is trying to blame Facebook on bugs too.
Knight Capital Group Inc. lost $440 million in seconds yesterday after installing a new trading software.
("This issue was related to Knight's installation of trading software and resulted in Knight sending numerous erroneous orders in NYSE-listed securities into the market," Knight said. "This software has been removed from the company's systems.")
It is hard to imagine something like this not being tested and implemented on a test systems before it is rolled out.
(On July 18, Knight reported second-quarter earnings of $3.3 million, down 81 percent from a year earlier after recording a $35.4 million pretax trading loss from the Facebook initial public offering. The company has not yet filed its second-quarter report with regulators.)
I am certain someone somewhere is trying to blame Facebook on bugs too.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
End of July update
S and P 500 9.68%
Buy List 6.72%
Covered Call list 8.25%
Raven Split 2 for 1 last week.
Buy List 6.72%
Covered Call list 8.25%
Raven Split 2 for 1 last week.
Sunday, July 22, 2012
August option sale
July option struck AFL and KKR. (Captial Gain $33,819)
August options bought back AFL at 43.28
August Covered call sales $56,074..
Covered call portfolio 8.15%
August options bought back AFL at 43.28
August Covered call sales $56,074..
Covered call portfolio 8.15%
July option expirations
At the end of July option period the standings are
S&P 500 8.35%
Buy list 5.58%
Covered call list 8.02%
The notable stock on the list is DF which dropped from $17.25(high) to $12.13(Friday close). Concern about the drought in the midwest affecting feed prices for milk is the culprit, but Deutsche Bank gave a target price of $18.00. (Not that target estimates from the sell side means a damn thing). Eddie's simplest valuation method places the target price at $18.32.
The next post will cover August Covered call sales.
S&P 500 8.35%
Buy list 5.58%
Covered call list 8.02%
The notable stock on the list is DF which dropped from $17.25(high) to $12.13(Friday close). Concern about the drought in the midwest affecting feed prices for milk is the culprit, but Deutsche Bank gave a target price of $18.00. (Not that target estimates from the sell side means a damn thing). Eddie's simplest valuation method places the target price at $18.32.
The next post will cover August Covered call sales.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Yahoo hires a rock star...
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Marissa-Mayer-s-challenge-as-Yahoo-CEO-3710910.php#photo-320223
Marissa Mayer was hired away from Google to be CEO of Yahoo. This will be Yahoo's 7th CEO in 5 years. I think the most common comment around water coolers will not be Yahoo made a great choice, but that she sure is cute. I do not think that will translate to a better product for Yahoo.
Marissa Mayer was hired away from Google to be CEO of Yahoo. This will be Yahoo's 7th CEO in 5 years. I think the most common comment around water coolers will not be Yahoo made a great choice, but that she sure is cute. I do not think that will translate to a better product for Yahoo.
Monday, July 16, 2012
The new 1% Club
http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2012/07/16/largest-public-pension-fund-earns-dismal-1-percent/
CalPERS manages the retirement fund for State of California public employees. For the last fiscal year which ended on June 30th, they provided an all around return of 1%. (S and P 500 was about 3.5% for that period.)
CalPERS manages the retirement fund for State of California public employees. For the last fiscal year which ended on June 30th, they provided an all around return of 1%. (S and P 500 was about 3.5% for that period.)
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Half Way Home
The year is half over....
S and P 500 8.31%
Buylist 7.97%
Covered Call account 7.72%
Also UVXY is down to 9.81
S and P 500 8.31%
Buylist 7.97%
Covered Call account 7.72%
Also UVXY is down to 9.81
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Toot your own horn when you can....
On May 18th I wrote. (Referring to JPMorgan.)
" I think the trading losses will spread to $5B."
Today this story is released...http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fc973b58-c129-11e1-8179-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1z7GUt1Vj
"JPMorgan Chase is expected to announce losses of about $5bn related to trades by the so-called London whale at its second-quarter earnings presentation in two weeks."
There should be no mistaking what was originally called a hedge as a proprietary trade.
A hedge is designed to protect against losses not increase them. Hedges are sunk costs designed to mitigate risk. The cost is known. There are hedges that increase opportunity costs, but that is not the same thing as loss.
x
" I think the trading losses will spread to $5B."
Today this story is released...http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fc973b58-c129-11e1-8179-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1z7GUt1Vj
"JPMorgan Chase is expected to announce losses of about $5bn related to trades by the so-called London whale at its second-quarter earnings presentation in two weeks."
There should be no mistaking what was originally called a hedge as a proprietary trade.
A hedge is designed to protect against losses not increase them. Hedges are sunk costs designed to mitigate risk. The cost is known. There are hedges that increase opportunity costs, but that is not the same thing as loss.
x
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Scorching Hot Stock pick....
Guess the stock that is up 17% for the month of June and up 30% since it hit bottom on June 6th.
I will give you a hint...Starts with "F", ends with "K" and is not the word that most people used after its famously failed IPO just about 1 month ago.
I will give you a hint...Starts with "F", ends with "K" and is not the word that most people used after its famously failed IPO just about 1 month ago.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Indian Casino Farmers
http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/Yolo-tribe-adds-farms-to-casino-neighbors-unhappy-3654203.php
This is a very weird article about an Indian casino in California that is turning their vast land holding into farms. Capay Valley is a very pretty valley about an hours drive from San Francisco. A two lane highway runs through the valley. In the middle of the valley is a huge resort casino. The traffic congestion can be very bad, but the casino itself is a financial boon to the locals who embrace the traffic and the Indian tribe itself.
For fun, let's look at some of the quotes.
Marshall McKay, the tribal chairman, sits at a board table looking serious and presidential as he contemplates the question. (Referring to farming and gambling.)
"They're both gambling," he deadpans.
Next is the strangest quote from the article
"Selling the idea to the rest of the tribe in the beginning was problematic. We are not farmers," McKay says, adding that for thousands of years his people were hunters, gatherers and fishermen.
I think he should have said "...hunters, gatherers, fishermen and casino operators."
It is strange how so often a person who represents a group can make such racist comments about the group they represent. Imagine what McKay would say if someone else wrote. "Indians cannot farm, they are hunters and gatherers."
Let's read from the opposition.
"It's sort of like someone coming from New York to Napa and throwing tons of money into planting vineyards," says Tom Frederick, who along with his wife, Pam Welch, owns Capay Valley Vineyards. Welch is president of Capay Valley Coalition, an organization of about 100 residents dedicated to keeping the area zoned mostly for farming. "I think they're using the farming to distance themselves from the casino," he says.
"It's like having a super developer with unlimited funds and no rules and accountability living alongside us dirt farmers," Frederick says. "They'll always have the biggest and best tractors."
It always comes down to size doesn't it?
By the way, if you go over the hill behind the casino, they have one of the prettiest golf courses I have ever seen.
This is a very weird article about an Indian casino in California that is turning their vast land holding into farms. Capay Valley is a very pretty valley about an hours drive from San Francisco. A two lane highway runs through the valley. In the middle of the valley is a huge resort casino. The traffic congestion can be very bad, but the casino itself is a financial boon to the locals who embrace the traffic and the Indian tribe itself.
For fun, let's look at some of the quotes.
Marshall McKay, the tribal chairman, sits at a board table looking serious and presidential as he contemplates the question. (Referring to farming and gambling.)
"They're both gambling," he deadpans.
Next is the strangest quote from the article
"Selling the idea to the rest of the tribe in the beginning was problematic. We are not farmers," McKay says, adding that for thousands of years his people were hunters, gatherers and fishermen.
I think he should have said "...hunters, gatherers, fishermen and casino operators."
It is strange how so often a person who represents a group can make such racist comments about the group they represent. Imagine what McKay would say if someone else wrote. "Indians cannot farm, they are hunters and gatherers."
Let's read from the opposition.
"It's sort of like someone coming from New York to Napa and throwing tons of money into planting vineyards," says Tom Frederick, who along with his wife, Pam Welch, owns Capay Valley Vineyards. Welch is president of Capay Valley Coalition, an organization of about 100 residents dedicated to keeping the area zoned mostly for farming. "I think they're using the farming to distance themselves from the casino," he says.
"It's like having a super developer with unlimited funds and no rules and accountability living alongside us dirt farmers," Frederick says. "They'll always have the biggest and best tractors."
It always comes down to size doesn't it?
By the way, if you go over the hill behind the casino, they have one of the prettiest golf courses I have ever seen.
BBBY on Sale
Bed Bath and Beyond is a very well run home store that recently lowered guidance for the coming year.
http://www.investingdaily.com/15380/bed-bath-beyond-falls-out-of-bed
I think it is on sale so I broke with my tradition in the option portfolio and retook a position and sold the call for BBBY.
This puts the option account at 6.92%
Buy list is at 6.16%
S and P 500 is at 6.16% YTD
http://www.investingdaily.com/15380/bed-bath-beyond-falls-out-of-bed
I think it is on sale so I broke with my tradition in the option portfolio and retook a position and sold the call for BBBY.
This puts the option account at 6.92%
Buy list is at 6.16%
S and P 500 is at 6.16% YTD
Saturday, June 16, 2012
June Option expiration
For the Option Account,
HPC and SYK optioned out from the Call sale.
We now have 10 stocks and $5,000,000. in cash.
Our option account is now at 7.11% including July contract sales.
Our buy list recovered nicely from the May slam to 7.3%
The S and P 500 is at 6.78% for the year.
HPC and SYK optioned out from the Call sale.
We now have 10 stocks and $5,000,000. in cash.
Our option account is now at 7.11% including July contract sales.
Our buy list recovered nicely from the May slam to 7.3%
The S and P 500 is at 6.78% for the year.
Saturday, June 9, 2012
Dean Foods Stock Highlight
Dean Foods is a stock on our buy list that is up 43% for the year. This may seem great except it is down from its high of $47 from 2007.
Dean Foods Company is a food and beverage company. It operates through two segments: Fresh Dairy Direct-Morningstar and WhiteWave-Alpro. Fresh Dairy Direct-Morningstar is a processor and distributor of milk and other dairy products in the United States, with products sold under more than 50 local and regional brands and a range of private labels. WhiteWave-Alpro markets and sells a variety of dairy and dairy-related products, such as Horizon Organic milk and other dairy products, The Organic Cow organic dairy products, as well as other plant-based beverages and soy food products, International Delight coffee creamers and LAND O LAKES creamers and fluid dairy products, and Silk plant-based beverages, such as soy, almond and coconut milks, and cultured soy products. WhiteWave-Alpro also offers soy-based beverages and food products in Europe and markets its products under the Alpro and Provamel brands. On February 1, 2011, it completed the sale of its Mountain High yogurt operations.
According to Eddy Elfenbein's "Simplest Valuation method." the stock still has room to move up based on next year's earning estimate of $1.33 per share.
Dean Foods Company is a food and beverage company. It operates through two segments: Fresh Dairy Direct-Morningstar and WhiteWave-Alpro. Fresh Dairy Direct-Morningstar is a processor and distributor of milk and other dairy products in the United States, with products sold under more than 50 local and regional brands and a range of private labels. WhiteWave-Alpro markets and sells a variety of dairy and dairy-related products, such as Horizon Organic milk and other dairy products, The Organic Cow organic dairy products, as well as other plant-based beverages and soy food products, International Delight coffee creamers and LAND O LAKES creamers and fluid dairy products, and Silk plant-based beverages, such as soy, almond and coconut milks, and cultured soy products. WhiteWave-Alpro also offers soy-based beverages and food products in Europe and markets its products under the Alpro and Provamel brands. On February 1, 2011, it completed the sale of its Mountain High yogurt operations.
According to Eddy Elfenbein's "Simplest Valuation method." the stock still has room to move up based on next year's earning estimate of $1.33 per share.
Thursday, June 7, 2012
HP....Getting into the Coffee Business
This article is about how Meg Whitman is going to turn around HP like Howard Schultz did at Starbucks.
While the opportunity to poke fun at this is obvious, I will let Whitman set up the joke...
"Usually, these kinds of turnarounds take anywhere between four or five years," Whitman said at the company's Discover conference in Las Vegas. "To have HP humming exactly the way I envision it - this is a big undertaking."
"There's nothing fancy about these turnarounds," Whitman said. "This is not advanced business, this is 101."
"If we can bridge the consumer with the enterprise and create desirable devices, that's a big opportunity for HP," she said. "Ultimately, we have to solve the mobility challenge."
Really?????
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/06/06/BUN41OTPQU.DTL
While the opportunity to poke fun at this is obvious, I will let Whitman set up the joke...
"Usually, these kinds of turnarounds take anywhere between four or five years," Whitman said at the company's Discover conference in Las Vegas. "To have HP humming exactly the way I envision it - this is a big undertaking."
"There's nothing fancy about these turnarounds," Whitman said. "This is not advanced business, this is 101."
"If we can bridge the consumer with the enterprise and create desirable devices, that's a big opportunity for HP," she said. "Ultimately, we have to solve the mobility challenge."
Really?????
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/06/06/BUN41OTPQU.DTL
Monday, June 4, 2012
ETF Hell Part 1
Anyone who knows me and discusses investments knows that I distrust EFT's immensely. This is for 1 simple reason. I do not know what they are. Yes, I know they are funds that trade like stocks, but still...
Today let us look at ProShares Trust II. (UVXY)
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:UVXY
From the website:
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF seeks, on a daily basis, to provide investment results (before fees and expenses) that correspond to twice (2x) the performance of the S&P 500® VIX® Short-Term Futures Index.TM
As far as I can tell, the ETF started trading in October 2011 for at $244. On March 8th, it reverse split 1:6 (If you had 6 shares, they were now 1 share for 6 time the March 7th price of $5.00).
Currently the ETF is trading at $21.60.
Here is the part that caught my attention. The Dec 2012 option price for a $22.00 strike is $10.00. This means that the price would have to drop below $12.00 to lose money.
This should be fun to watch.
Today let us look at ProShares Trust II. (UVXY)
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:UVXY
From the website:
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF seeks, on a daily basis, to provide investment results (before fees and expenses) that correspond to twice (2x) the performance of the S&P 500® VIX® Short-Term Futures Index.TM
As far as I can tell, the ETF started trading in October 2011 for at $244. On March 8th, it reverse split 1:6 (If you had 6 shares, they were now 1 share for 6 time the March 7th price of $5.00).
Currently the ETF is trading at $21.60.
Here is the part that caught my attention. The Dec 2012 option price for a $22.00 strike is $10.00. This means that the price would have to drop below $12.00 to lose money.
This should be fun to watch.
Saturday, June 2, 2012
End of May
End of May...
Buylist 4.56%
S and P 500 2.28%
This is the first time this year our buylist has been above the S and P 500.
And then came June 1st...
The Dow drops 274 points,
our buy list drops to 2.28% and the
S and P 500 drops to 1.63%
The June option list is still at 4.56% with BDX being repurchased on 5/29 and then dropping another 2$.
Buylist 4.56%
S and P 500 2.28%
This is the first time this year our buylist has been above the S and P 500.
And then came June 1st...
The Dow drops 274 points,
our buy list drops to 2.28% and the
S and P 500 drops to 1.63%
The June option list is still at 4.56% with BDX being repurchased on 5/29 and then dropping another 2$.
Saturday, May 26, 2012
10 Thoughts on the Facebook IPO. (The Tragedy that Wasn't)
By now, everyone has chimed in on the Facebook IPO. Most of what I read has been (in my opinion) crap.
Here are 10 thoughts of my own.
#1) I told you so...(So did a lot of people)
#2) Congrates to the Zuckerberg's. I hope you continue to be the nice people you seem like.
#3) I read an article that I cannot find that shows the real current value of Facebook around $13.60.
This was based on current revenue and future growth aligned with investor expectations.
#4) $38.00 was the right price for the IPO. Why not? The moment the stock started to trade, it was the market that determined the price. The drop in FB share price could be related to Greece or any other reason that stocks raise and lower without news. You cannot fault Morgan Stanley for getting the best price for their client (FB) and as for their retail clients, I am certain that the caveat sheet for investing in FB IPO was at least a page long. After trading started, the price hit a $45.00 target. Somebody bought a 45. Somebody either placed a market order or a limit order. Now the market owns the stock and it is up to them to determine the price.
#5) FB did not owe it to the investing public to leave value on the table. I read that someone said it should have been priced at $28.00 so the retail investors could make a profit. Why?
#6) Back to #1. If I told you so and lots of people told you so, what did we tell you? That FB was overpriced and to stay the hell away from it. The most amazing thing is, (and I do not have stat to back this up) I would guess that the #1 place most people read about staying away from investing in FB was....their Facebook page.
Social Media is huge and there is a lot of money to be made in it. It is only going to get bigger too. I just do not think that FB will be the vehicle at any price above a valuation that is in the teens.
The last 4 are coming....
Here are 10 thoughts of my own.
#1) I told you so...(So did a lot of people)
#2) Congrates to the Zuckerberg's. I hope you continue to be the nice people you seem like.
#3) I read an article that I cannot find that shows the real current value of Facebook around $13.60.
This was based on current revenue and future growth aligned with investor expectations.
#4) $38.00 was the right price for the IPO. Why not? The moment the stock started to trade, it was the market that determined the price. The drop in FB share price could be related to Greece or any other reason that stocks raise and lower without news. You cannot fault Morgan Stanley for getting the best price for their client (FB) and as for their retail clients, I am certain that the caveat sheet for investing in FB IPO was at least a page long. After trading started, the price hit a $45.00 target. Somebody bought a 45. Somebody either placed a market order or a limit order. Now the market owns the stock and it is up to them to determine the price.
#5) FB did not owe it to the investing public to leave value on the table. I read that someone said it should have been priced at $28.00 so the retail investors could make a profit. Why?
#6) Back to #1. If I told you so and lots of people told you so, what did we tell you? That FB was overpriced and to stay the hell away from it. The most amazing thing is, (and I do not have stat to back this up) I would guess that the #1 place most people read about staying away from investing in FB was....their Facebook page.
Social Media is huge and there is a lot of money to be made in it. It is only going to get bigger too. I just do not think that FB will be the vehicle at any price above a valuation that is in the teens.
The last 4 are coming....
Sunday, May 20, 2012
June Option updates
May Options have expired.
None of our holdings were called.
We bought KKR and LUK and both are down from their purchase price.
For June, We sold CC options for 6 of our 11 holdings for a total value of $31,634.
We still have $4.5 million in cash.
We have banked $663,244 cash from the sale of options and stocks being called.
Our CC portfolio is down $159,000 in value.
Our account is at 5.04% combined.
The S and P 500 is as 2.99%
our main buy list is at 2.23%.
May is a portfolio killer. I do not see the general market improving until after the election in November.
None of our holdings were called.
We bought KKR and LUK and both are down from their purchase price.
For June, We sold CC options for 6 of our 11 holdings for a total value of $31,634.
We still have $4.5 million in cash.
We have banked $663,244 cash from the sale of options and stocks being called.
Our CC portfolio is down $159,000 in value.
Our account is at 5.04% combined.
The S and P 500 is as 2.99%
our main buy list is at 2.23%.
May is a portfolio killer. I do not see the general market improving until after the election in November.
Friday, May 18, 2012
What do Facebook and Jamie Dimon have in common
Today is the IPO for Facebook. Jamie Dimon is the CEO of JP Morgan Chase. It is my prediction that in 6 month, both will be worth a lot less than at the close of today.
I just do not see how Facebook can build itself without adding huge amounts of ads. This will drive users away. They could go on a buying spree and buy themselves a conglomerate of tech companies, but valuation and integration have proven to be historical failures on these accounts. I see the price in the low 20s or teens.
Jamie Dimon will get kicked out of JPM. I think the trading losses will spread to $5B. Everyone knows the trade now and anyone who can move a position against JPM has/is. Do not feel sorry for Mr. Dimon. He is a legend and a great mind. He has been around huge money for a long time. He will not be unemployed long.
Maybe he will start a hedge fund and start making bets against large banks that are too big to fail. He will bet against institutions that combine government insured deposits and investments that rake in billions if successful and billions of loses (Govt insured) if failed.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Buy list update
Our Buy list is down to 5% while the S&P 500 is down to 5.81%. Notice that we have not been as volatile as the index.
For the Covered call list KKR and LUK are buys. This means that they are below the 1/1/12 purchase price and had been sold on February option expiration. I have bought them back..
KKR @12.39
LUK @21.99
LUK almost hit 30$ when it was sold as a covered call.
This Saturday is option expiration day so we will sell June options on them then.
For the Covered call list KKR and LUK are buys. This means that they are below the 1/1/12 purchase price and had been sold on February option expiration. I have bought them back..
KKR @12.39
LUK @21.99
LUK almost hit 30$ when it was sold as a covered call.
This Saturday is option expiration day so we will sell June options on them then.
Stop Whining.....just Drink
Interesting article on the world of fake wine...
How would you fake wine, anyway? You could blend two vintages, say a bottle of ’81 Pétrus (average auction price: $1,194) and a bottle of ’83 Pétrus ($1,288), to make two bottles of ’82 Pétrus ($4,763 each). It would be the right wine and taste the right age; even if it didn’t taste exactly like ’82, it wouldn’t taste exactly like ’81 or ’83 either.
http://nymag.com/news/features/rudy-kurniawan-wine-fraud-2012-5/
How would you fake wine, anyway? You could blend two vintages, say a bottle of ’81 Pétrus (average auction price: $1,194) and a bottle of ’83 Pétrus ($1,288), to make two bottles of ’82 Pétrus ($4,763 each). It would be the right wine and taste the right age; even if it didn’t taste exactly like ’82, it wouldn’t taste exactly like ’81 or ’83 either.
http://nymag.com/news/features/rudy-kurniawan-wine-fraud-2012-5/
Thursday, May 10, 2012
HP is still tied to the Whipping Post
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/08/500-hp-apotheker/
This is a very interesting article on HP and the clowns that run it.
BTW...I do not mean to be disrespectful.
This is a very interesting article on HP and the clowns that run it.
BTW...I do not mean to be disrespectful.
They Keep Doing IT.
Wall Street has hired the best minds in the world to develop investment models. Most of these models use some degree (large) of historical data to back test the models and check performance. These models for a variety of reason implode leaving huge losses for the participants.
Chase Morgan designed a model and it had a $2 Billion implosion.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/05/10/financial/f142109D20.DTL&tsp=1
"The loss came in a portfolio of the complex financial instruments known as derivatives, and in a division of JPMorgan designed to help control its exposure to risk in the financial markets and invest excess money in its corporate treasury."
By the way, our buy list is down to 6.49%, S & P 500 is at 7.98%.
Chase Morgan designed a model and it had a $2 Billion implosion.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/05/10/financial/f142109D20.DTL&tsp=1
"The loss came in a portfolio of the complex financial instruments known as derivatives, and in a division of JPMorgan designed to help control its exposure to risk in the financial markets and invest excess money in its corporate treasury."
By the way, our buy list is down to 6.49%, S & P 500 is at 7.98%.
Monday, April 30, 2012
It's the end of April as we know it.
S and P 500 @ 11.16%
Our Buy List is at 7.86%
We are now entering the "Go away in May and Stay" season.
Our Buy List is at 7.86%
We are now entering the "Go away in May and Stay" season.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
April 2012 Option Expiration Update
S and P 500 9.62%
Buy list 6.01%
Option trades 6.63% (April 21.)
Bought AFL.
No April option hit strike price.
Options for May
Cash position $5,500,000
Realized and stashed Profit. $630,000
May Option CC sales $20,040.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
When is a CEO not a CEO
I was going to write today about Brian Dunn, CEO of Best Buy jumping from a sinking ship like a stoned Italian cruise ship captain. My thought was that when a company is in trouble the CEO hangs in there until he is shown the door and then is kind enough to show his replacement where the light switches are. Best Buy is dying and he quits...
"It's good news that he's gone," said Brian Sozzi, chief equities analyst at NBG Productions, an independent research firm. "But this adds another layer of uncertainty."
This article reviles that it probably was more than that. Maybe Larry Ellison will hire him too.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-04/D9U2DIH80.htm
"It's good news that he's gone," said Brian Sozzi, chief equities analyst at NBG Productions, an independent research firm. "But this adds another layer of uncertainty."
This article reviles that it probably was more than that. Maybe Larry Ellison will hire him too.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-04/D9U2DIH80.htm
In the last post I wrote the cash is comfortable right now and how right I was.
S and P 500 is at 8.03% and our buy list is at 4.18%
Our covered call list is the king right now.
Speaking of the covered call list. AFL signaled a buy and I did at $42.22
Our Jan purchase price was $43.26 and we sold with the Feb Covered Call at $44 strike when the price was at $48.01. I will wait until after the April expiration date to sell Covered Calls on it now although the $43.00 strike price is at .58.
I think this is going to get worse before it gets better.
S and P 500 is at 8.03% and our buy list is at 4.18%
Our covered call list is the king right now.
Speaking of the covered call list. AFL signaled a buy and I did at $42.22
Our Jan purchase price was $43.26 and we sold with the Feb Covered Call at $44 strike when the price was at $48.01. I will wait until after the April expiration date to sell Covered Calls on it now although the $43.00 strike price is at .58.
I think this is going to get worse before it gets better.
Friday, March 30, 2012
End of March Buylist update
Our Buylist is up 8.37%
The S and P 500 is up 12%
This is how the Losers to Winner rank.
Our Covered call portfolio is still awash in cash. There have been no retraction to buy points
although I think all of them are a good price to purchase. My concern is that the market will enter a point of uncertainty with the election and the summer swing. I am confident that cash is comfortable right now.
The S and P 500 is up 12%
This is how the Losers to Winner rank.
Our Covered call portfolio is still awash in cash. There have been no retraction to buy points
although I think all of them are a good price to purchase. My concern is that the market will enter a point of uncertainty with the election and the summer swing. I am confident that cash is comfortable right now.
| HCP | HCP Inc | Medical Facility REIT | -4.76% |
| RLI | RLI Corp | Insurance | -1.67% |
| RAVN | Raven Industries | Diversified MFG | -1.44% |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | Consumer Products | 0.75% |
| NICK | Nicholas Financial | Car Loans | 2.89% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Co. | Medical Devise Mfg. | 3.92% |
| MO | Altria Group | Cigarettes | 4.11% |
| KO | It's the Real Thing | Consumer Products | 5.77% |
| AFL | AFLAC Quack Quack | Insurance | 6.31% |
| MKC | McCormick and Co. | Consumer Products | 7.95% |
| DF | Dean Food | Dairy Food | 8.13% |
| SYK | Stryker Corporation | Medical Technology Co. | 11.61% |
| GE | General Electric | MFG conglomerate | 12.06% |
| BBBY | Bed, Bath and Beyond | Home Retail | 13.46% |
| ORCL | Oracle | Hardware/Software | 13.68% |
| LUK | Leucadia Nationl Corp | Banking and Finance | 14.78% |
| KKR | Kravis, Kolberg and Roberts | Finance Barbarians | 15.59% |
| INTC | Intel | Computer Chip Maker | 15.94% |
| F | Ford | Automobile | 15.94% |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works | Diversified MFG | 22.29% |
Friday, March 23, 2012
Sorry about that Mr. Joshi
On 2/25/12 I submitted a post where I questioned HP hiring Meg Whitman as CEO rather than someone with vision, leadership and credibility. I thought that they should have hired a leader from within the company who had the knowledge and experience to lead the company from the inside rather than a rock star who would use HP as a platform to their own social and financial gains.
I included a link to Yyomesh Joshi's HP page. http://www8.hp.com/us/en/company-information/executive-team/joshi.html
I choose his page because he had been with HP for 30 years and ran the IPG section which has been very successful.
I am certain the Whitman must have read my suggestion because this week she announced she was merging the printer and computer businesses and that Mr. Joshi was not going to be included in the party.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/21/technology/hp-is-said-to-plan-merger-of-computer-and-printer-units.html
It is not that I think Mr. Bradley will not be a fine leader of this business group. It was just that I keep thinking of how much fun it is to watch the parade.
I included a link to Yyomesh Joshi's HP page. http://www8.hp.com/us/en/company-information/executive-team/joshi.html
I choose his page because he had been with HP for 30 years and ran the IPG section which has been very successful.
I am certain the Whitman must have read my suggestion because this week she announced she was merging the printer and computer businesses and that Mr. Joshi was not going to be included in the party.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/21/technology/hp-is-said-to-plan-merger-of-computer-and-printer-units.html
It is not that I think Mr. Bradley will not be a fine leader of this business group. It was just that I keep thinking of how much fun it is to watch the parade.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
March 18 buy list update
Today the March Option contracts expire.
This is the update.
S and P 500 = 11.65%
Buylist = 8.35%
Option list = 7.6%
Notes: Our buylist is performing 3% below the S and P 500. That is ok. Hopefully if there is a reverse in the market, our lower beta will reduce the pain.
Our option list lost BBBY, KO and MO. to being called.
We re-sold contracts for F, PG and SYK.
Currently we have $6,000,000 in cash in the account, and we have locked in $611,000 in hard profits.
This means we have 40% of the risk of the buylist for .7% less gain.
I am still expecting a drop in the market. I believe there will be a consolidation in April and it will maintain until after the election. We will buy back positions and sell calls as we retrace to our original position, unless the market looks really bad and then we will just wait.
This is the update.
S and P 500 = 11.65%
Buylist = 8.35%
Option list = 7.6%
Notes: Our buylist is performing 3% below the S and P 500. That is ok. Hopefully if there is a reverse in the market, our lower beta will reduce the pain.
Our option list lost BBBY, KO and MO. to being called.
We re-sold contracts for F, PG and SYK.
Currently we have $6,000,000 in cash in the account, and we have locked in $611,000 in hard profits.
This means we have 40% of the risk of the buylist for .7% less gain.
I am still expecting a drop in the market. I believe there will be a consolidation in April and it will maintain until after the election. We will buy back positions and sell calls as we retrace to our original position, unless the market looks really bad and then we will just wait.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Goldman Sachs Greece and Oil
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-07/goldmans-dubious-deals-is-this-gods-work
There are some very interesting articles coming out regarding GS restructuring debt for Greece. I think I am going to have to read about 18 more times to understand what they did.
Also in this article is about a Kinder Morgan deal to buy El Paso. This article should be a starting point for anyone wishing to learn more.
There are some very interesting articles coming out regarding GS restructuring debt for Greece. I think I am going to have to read about 18 more times to understand what they did.
Also in this article is about a Kinder Morgan deal to buy El Paso. This article should be a starting point for anyone wishing to learn more.
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Today's Drop
Huge drop today. Many of the stocks in the margin account that were called are returning to a re-entry point.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Buy list for end of Feb.
Our buy list is up 1.36% for the month of February.
Overall it is up 6.75%
The S and P 500 is up 8.59%
Overall it is up 6.75%
The S and P 500 is up 8.59%
Rattlesnakes are everywhere...
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/02/29/bloomberg_articlesM04YAL3PWT1C01-M0528.DTL
This is an article on Dan Zwirn and the collapse of his hedge fund.
When I go hiking with my children I tell them, "Watch out for rattlesnakes, they are everywhere...."
This is an article on Dan Zwirn and the collapse of his hedge fund.
When I go hiking with my children I tell them, "Watch out for rattlesnakes, they are everywhere...."
Is Apple worth more than all the apples in the world?
This is a article of all the things that Apple (APPL) is worth more than.
http://thingsappleisworthmorethan.tumblr.com/
As far as I can remember, I have never once spent a dime on an Apple product and I do not think I have ever owned shares in APPL either so none of this is my fault.
http://thingsappleisworthmorethan.tumblr.com/
As far as I can remember, I have never once spent a dime on an Apple product and I do not think I have ever owned shares in APPL either so none of this is my fault.
At $500 billion, Apple is worth more than Poland
This headline is either showing how big Apple is or poking fun at Poland. I thought poking fun at Poland died in the 80's when people instead poked fun a small company ran by two hippies who sold computers out of a garage in the Bay Area.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/29/technology/apple_market_cap/
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/29/technology/apple_market_cap/
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Dropped with Kustom Paint and Spinning Rims
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/28/boeing-idUSL2E8DSAE820120228
Boeing announced that it's first delivery of the revised 747 is to an anonymous VIP buyer.
Boeing announced that it's first delivery of the revised 747 is to an anonymous VIP buyer.
Boeing Business Jets president Steve Taylor, who was set to fly the airplane from Paine Field near Seattle, said it will spend about six months at Boeing's Wichita facility - the plant that modified Air Force One - for basic modifications.
From there it goes to a facility in Hamburg where it will spend two years receiving customer-specific outfitting like bedrooms, dining rooms and galleys, he said.
Taylor said the unnamed customer wants the new Intercontinental to be the "jewel of the sky."
"... for the aircraft, which lists at $332.9 million."
What is 1% of 1% of 1%.....?
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
How big is data mining.....
Stores will know you better than you know yourself.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2012/02/16/how-target-figured-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did/
It would be my guess that stores will have sensors on boxes to identity who touched them to figure out what people wish to purchase but decide against. Target the dreams of the consumer and you will sell the Universe.
or maybe extra absorbent diapers.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2012/02/16/how-target-figured-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did/
“Then we started mixing in all these ads for things we knew pregnant women would never buy, so the baby ads looked random. We’d put an ad for a lawn mower next to diapers. We’d put a coupon for wineglasses next to infant clothes. That way, it looked like all the products were chosen by chance.
“And we found out that as long as a pregnant woman thinks she hasn’t been spied on, she’ll use the coupons. She just assumes that everyone else on her block got the same mailer for diapers and cribs. As long as we don’t spook her, it works.”
It would be my guess that stores will have sensors on boxes to identity who touched them to figure out what people wish to purchase but decide against. Target the dreams of the consumer and you will sell the Universe.
or maybe extra absorbent diapers.
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Feb Option update
See the Feb option update sheet.
10 of our stocks were called because the price on 2/18 was higher than the strike price.
This reflects a lost opportunity of $139,100.03.
I made a mistake with KO. I placed the strike price below the purchase price. This results in a net loss on the trade.
We now have $5,000,000 to reinvest into the market. I will keep $465,000 as cash profit.(sale profit + option profit.) We will look to reenter our positions if the market corrects and we get a good position into our original purchases.
I will also sell March Calls on the remaining 10 stocks.
Overall, with the exception of KO, I am happy with the results. KO by the way just announced it's 50th year of dividend increases.
As a side note. Option contracts are 100 shares. Each of the stocks I traded would have had residual shares to sell at full price or keep. I chose to show these as a sale at strike for simplicity.
10 of our stocks were called because the price on 2/18 was higher than the strike price.
This reflects a lost opportunity of $139,100.03.
I made a mistake with KO. I placed the strike price below the purchase price. This results in a net loss on the trade.
We now have $5,000,000 to reinvest into the market. I will keep $465,000 as cash profit.(sale profit + option profit.) We will look to reenter our positions if the market corrects and we get a good position into our original purchases.
I will also sell March Calls on the remaining 10 stocks.
Overall, with the exception of KO, I am happy with the results. KO by the way just announced it's 50th year of dividend increases.
As a side note. Option contracts are 100 shares. Each of the stocks I traded would have had residual shares to sell at full price or keep. I chose to show these as a sale at strike for simplicity.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Olympus Scandal........Very interesting story
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/the-story-behind-the-olympus-scandal-02162012.html
Made for TV movie
The CEO of a major international corporation discovers that his company is funneling
$1 billion + out of the company and gets fired by the board of directors.....
He seeks to discover the truth and may pay......with his life..........
If I were Michael Woodford, I would be very worried too.
Made for TV movie
The CEO of a major international corporation discovers that his company is funneling
$1 billion + out of the company and gets fired by the board of directors.....
He seeks to discover the truth and may pay......with his life..........
If I were Michael Woodford, I would be very worried too.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
When to sell?
http://randomroger.blogspot.com/2012/02/how-and-when-to-sell.html
This is a very good blog on when to sell an equity position. There is no easy answer to this.
I have been thinking about LUK lately. It is up to $29.46.
On the covered call portfolio, I covered it at $25.00 so we have lost a lot of upside.
This is a very good blog on when to sell an equity position. There is no easy answer to this.
I have been thinking about LUK lately. It is up to $29.46.
On the covered call portfolio, I covered it at $25.00 so we have lost a lot of upside.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
What you need to know....
about Facebook IPO....
This is a real article about what you need to know about the Facebook IPO....
1) What Exactly Is An IPO?
2) Why Do Companies "Go Public" --Issue IPOs?
3) How Do You Buy Into An IPO?
4) Are IPOs Off-Limits To Small Investors?
5) Are "Hot" IPOs An Easy Way To Make Money?
Fortunately, Brandon in the "comment" section saves the day...
"If you are just learning what an IPO is from this article, you should definitely NOT buy FB or any other stock and should instead at least spend a few months studying the industry before you buy. Its not a game."
Thanks Brandon, but I think you are wrong. Facebook IPO is the perfect investment vehicle for anybody who is now just learning about IPO.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/want-buy-facebook-know-ipos-185543383.html;_ylt=Ai2v_Oellm.Tl_yX5q4OhBCiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0YmlkZDViBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDZTU4ZDgxMmQtOTkyZS0zNzE1LWJkMzAtMTg4NmRhYjdmY2ZjBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2JkMjAyZTAwLTRkMGEtMTFlMS1iZmZhLWRkZWVhNzUxMWNmMQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
This is a real article about what you need to know about the Facebook IPO....
1) What Exactly Is An IPO?
2) Why Do Companies "Go Public" --Issue IPOs?
3) How Do You Buy Into An IPO?
4) Are IPOs Off-Limits To Small Investors?
5) Are "Hot" IPOs An Easy Way To Make Money?
Fortunately, Brandon in the "comment" section saves the day...
"If you are just learning what an IPO is from this article, you should definitely NOT buy FB or any other stock and should instead at least spend a few months studying the industry before you buy. Its not a game."
Thanks Brandon, but I think you are wrong. Facebook IPO is the perfect investment vehicle for anybody who is now just learning about IPO.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/want-buy-facebook-know-ipos-185543383.html;_ylt=Ai2v_Oellm.Tl_yX5q4OhBCiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0YmlkZDViBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDZTU4ZDgxMmQtOTkyZS0zNzE1LWJkMzAtMTg4NmRhYjdmY2ZjBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2JkMjAyZTAwLTRkMGEtMTFlMS1iZmZhLWRkZWVhNzUxMWNmMQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Buy List for Jan
Our Buy List ended the month up 5.21%.
Our next milestone will be option expiration for Feb.
Oh yes, Facebook is going to file for an IPO tomorrow.
Don't get caught in the hype. Next year at this time will be an excellent buy opportunity for Facebook.
It is my guess that you will be able to buy twice as many shares next year for the same money as at the close of the IPO date. Again, that is my guess.
Our next milestone will be option expiration for Feb.
Oh yes, Facebook is going to file for an IPO tomorrow.
Don't get caught in the hype. Next year at this time will be an excellent buy opportunity for Facebook.
It is my guess that you will be able to buy twice as many shares next year for the same money as at the close of the IPO date. Again, that is my guess.
Nobody can teach this kind of economics......
http://www.lettersofnote.com/2012/01/to-my-old-master.html
A letter from a former slave to his master...147 years ago.
As to my freedom, which you say I can have, there is nothing to be gained on that score, as I got my free papers in 1864 from the Provost-Marshal-General of the Department of Nashville. Mandy says she would be afraid to go back without some proof that you were disposed to treat us justly and kindly; and we have concluded to test your sincerity by asking you to send us our wages for the time we served you. This will make us forget and forgive old scores, and rely on your justice and friendship in the future. I served you faithfully for thirty-two years, and Mandy twenty years. At twenty-five dollars a month for me, and two dollars a week for Mandy, our earnings would amount to eleven thousand six hundred and eighty dollars. Add to this the interest for the time our wages have been kept back, and deduct what you paid for our clothing, and three doctor's visits to me, and pulling a tooth for Mandy, and the balance will show what we are in justice entitled to. Please send the money by Adams's Express, in care of V. Winters, Esq., Dayton, Ohio. If you fail to pay us for faithful labors in the past, we can have little faith in your promises in the future. We trust the good Maker has opened your eyes to the wrongs which you and your fathers have done to me and my fathers, in making us toil for you for generations without recompense. Here I draw my wages every Saturday night; but in Tennessee there was never any pay-day for the negroes any more than for the horses and cows. Surely there will be a day of reckoning for those who defraud the laborer of his hire.
A letter from a former slave to his master...147 years ago.
As to my freedom, which you say I can have, there is nothing to be gained on that score, as I got my free papers in 1864 from the Provost-Marshal-General of the Department of Nashville. Mandy says she would be afraid to go back without some proof that you were disposed to treat us justly and kindly; and we have concluded to test your sincerity by asking you to send us our wages for the time we served you. This will make us forget and forgive old scores, and rely on your justice and friendship in the future. I served you faithfully for thirty-two years, and Mandy twenty years. At twenty-five dollars a month for me, and two dollars a week for Mandy, our earnings would amount to eleven thousand six hundred and eighty dollars. Add to this the interest for the time our wages have been kept back, and deduct what you paid for our clothing, and three doctor's visits to me, and pulling a tooth for Mandy, and the balance will show what we are in justice entitled to. Please send the money by Adams's Express, in care of V. Winters, Esq., Dayton, Ohio. If you fail to pay us for faithful labors in the past, we can have little faith in your promises in the future. We trust the good Maker has opened your eyes to the wrongs which you and your fathers have done to me and my fathers, in making us toil for you for generations without recompense. Here I draw my wages every Saturday night; but in Tennessee there was never any pay-day for the negroes any more than for the horses and cows. Surely there will be a day of reckoning for those who defraud the laborer of his hire.
Monday, January 30, 2012
In case you wish to add to the confusion....
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-davos-reutersmagazine-salmontre80q1g2-20120127,0,7331753.story
Felix Salmon is a writer who writes very well for English literature. This is not necessarily good for writing about financial news. My guess is that most people who read financial news would prefer bullet point to prose.
"On top of that, finance is particularly susceptible to the kind of hubris that one finds in people who think that if they've made millions of dollars, they must be the "smart money," with an edge not only over the public but even over their fellow bankers and financiers. That, in turn, sets up some very easy morality plays. When the inevitable nemesis arrives, the weaknesses of the erstwhile Masters of the Universe are exposed for all to see, and those of us whose job it is to Explain Finance take every opportunity to spell out exactly what these prideful men got wrong. They weren't smart, they were stupid!
"If very intelligent, successful, and aggressive men like Robert Rubin, John Thain, or Jon Corzine could be so stupid, then, realistically speaking, everybody was stupid. And if everybody was stupid, then, in reality, nobody was quite as stupid as we now think they were."
Frankly, I am more of a Michael Lewis kind of guy.
Felix Salmon is a writer who writes very well for English literature. This is not necessarily good for writing about financial news. My guess is that most people who read financial news would prefer bullet point to prose.
"On top of that, finance is particularly susceptible to the kind of hubris that one finds in people who think that if they've made millions of dollars, they must be the "smart money," with an edge not only over the public but even over their fellow bankers and financiers. That, in turn, sets up some very easy morality plays. When the inevitable nemesis arrives, the weaknesses of the erstwhile Masters of the Universe are exposed for all to see, and those of us whose job it is to Explain Finance take every opportunity to spell out exactly what these prideful men got wrong. They weren't smart, they were stupid!
"If very intelligent, successful, and aggressive men like Robert Rubin, John Thain, or Jon Corzine could be so stupid, then, realistically speaking, everybody was stupid. And if everybody was stupid, then, in reality, nobody was quite as stupid as we now think they were."
Frankly, I am more of a Michael Lewis kind of guy.
MF Fine to Fail in just 1 week
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-30/mf-global-told-s-p-it-had-never-been-stronger-one-week-before-collapse.html
"A week before MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) collapsed, its chief financial officer told Standard & Poor’s in an e-mail that the futures broker had “never been stronger.”
“MF Global is in its strongest position ever,” Steenkamp told S&P on Oct. 24, according to the letter to Representative Randy Neugebauer, a Texas Republican, from Craig Parmelee, a managing director at S&P in New York."
"A week before MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) collapsed, its chief financial officer told Standard & Poor’s in an e-mail that the futures broker had “never been stronger.”
“MF Global is in its strongest position ever,” Steenkamp told S&P on Oct. 24, according to the letter to Representative Randy Neugebauer, a Texas Republican, from Craig Parmelee, a managing director at S&P in New York."
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Buy List update
Our buy list is at 5.63%
we took a big hit with F when it increase revenue but missed the share target for earnings.
The street was expecting $.25 and they came in at $.20.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Share buy back
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/most-share-buybacks-dont-pay-184507228.html
This report is about when companies choose to buy back their shares with the thought that the share price will increase with the buy back. I think the right thing to do is to give the money as a dividend instead and let the shareholder decide to purchase more stock if they wish.
This report is about when companies choose to buy back their shares with the thought that the share price will increase with the buy back. I think the right thing to do is to give the money as a dividend instead and let the shareholder decide to purchase more stock if they wish.
"According to the report, out of 380 companies in the S&P 500 that repurchased shares in at least five of the quarters, 84 companies bought shares when the stock price was high, and only 60 firms were able to buy low.
In addition, 72 companies saw poor returns within a year following share repurchases, versus 57 that saw good results."
Yesterday I read an article that stated Apple had $100 Billion in Cash and Securities. This amounted to over $100.00 per share. That would be a heck of a dividend.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Groupon's IPO vs. Snake Oil
http://news.yahoo.com/groupon-criticized-literally-peddling-snake-oil-180143930.html
Groupon, like Facebook is another social network thingamaging that I just do not get. I have never been a coupon person, (I have been know to get coupon discounts without a coupon..."I am certain if we talk to the manager....")
Groupon went public at on Nov 11 @ $26.11 and currently is trading @ $20.08.
It has had a high of $31 and a low of $14.85 and its market cap is $12+ Billion.
This article states..."A complaint reviewed by the London-based Advertising Standards Authority scolded the Chicago-based deals site's U.K. affiliate, MyCity Deal, for falsely promoting the effects of "Wrinkle Killer Snake Serum" that the ad copy said offered "temporary freeze-like effects on the face muscles" and "leaves the skin looking younger." After what sounds like a pretty scientific study of the snake oil's effects, the ASA deemed the ad "misleading" and subsequently forbade Groupon from running it again."
The comparison between snake oil sales and Groupon's IPO is simply too easy to pass up. I will be looking out for the Youtube video of the look on people's faces when they discover that either purchase does not live up to the claim.
Groupon, like Facebook is another social network thingamaging that I just do not get. I have never been a coupon person, (I have been know to get coupon discounts without a coupon..."I am certain if we talk to the manager....")
Groupon went public at on Nov 11 @ $26.11 and currently is trading @ $20.08.
It has had a high of $31 and a low of $14.85 and its market cap is $12+ Billion.
This article states..."A complaint reviewed by the London-based Advertising Standards Authority scolded the Chicago-based deals site's U.K. affiliate, MyCity Deal, for falsely promoting the effects of "Wrinkle Killer Snake Serum" that the ad copy said offered "temporary freeze-like effects on the face muscles" and "leaves the skin looking younger." After what sounds like a pretty scientific study of the snake oil's effects, the ASA deemed the ad "misleading" and subsequently forbade Groupon from running it again."
The comparison between snake oil sales and Groupon's IPO is simply too easy to pass up. I will be looking out for the Youtube video of the look on people's faces when they discover that either purchase does not live up to the claim.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Facebook's IPO......
http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/blog/morning-roundup/2012/01/facebook-list-top-10-hated-companies.html
This article states that Facebook is one of the top 10 most hated companies in the USA. Really??
I do not have a Facebook account. But in the top 10 most hated companies? What do they do to make people hate them so much? My thought on this is really about the IPO that is pending for Facebook.
http://venturebeat.com/2011/09/27/facebook-valuation-sharespost/
Facebook is valued at between $80-$100 billion. I think that this valuation is based on the captivity of the audience and potential advertising. But the barrier to entry in this field is simply a web portal. If anyone is going to rely on the faithfulness of the Facebook consumer to remain Facebook consumers, I think they are mistaken.
And when you are starting out on the top 10 list of hated companies that does not seem to help matters much.
I am certain that this is well known to people smarter than me, but I am looking forward to the IPO myself, for the same reason I like to watch auto racing.
This article states that Facebook is one of the top 10 most hated companies in the USA. Really??
I do not have a Facebook account. But in the top 10 most hated companies? What do they do to make people hate them so much? My thought on this is really about the IPO that is pending for Facebook.
http://venturebeat.com/2011/09/27/facebook-valuation-sharespost/
Facebook is valued at between $80-$100 billion. I think that this valuation is based on the captivity of the audience and potential advertising. But the barrier to entry in this field is simply a web portal. If anyone is going to rely on the faithfulness of the Facebook consumer to remain Facebook consumers, I think they are mistaken.
And when you are starting out on the top 10 list of hated companies that does not seem to help matters much.
I am certain that this is well known to people smarter than me, but I am looking forward to the IPO myself, for the same reason I like to watch auto racing.
Buy List so far....
Our buy list is up 5.64%...
On the covered call play, 9 of our stocks are above the strike price by a total of
by $179,470. You may remember that the options sold for $155K. So that will be
25K left on the table. If the Feb option expiration date comes, we will track these sales
and determine a re-entry point back into the stock. I am thinking that this re-entry point should be
at or below our initial purchase price. It is impossible to time the market. Anyone who thinks they can is wrong. (or will be wrong more times than they are correct.)
regarding this to....Eddy from www.crossingwallstreet.com sold LUK from his buy list this year. LUK is up 17%. His portfolio is still up 5.76%. There are lots of ways to be right in picking good stocks...and there are lots of ways to be wrong.
On the covered call play, 9 of our stocks are above the strike price by a total of
by $179,470. You may remember that the options sold for $155K. So that will be
25K left on the table. If the Feb option expiration date comes, we will track these sales
and determine a re-entry point back into the stock. I am thinking that this re-entry point should be
at or below our initial purchase price. It is impossible to time the market. Anyone who thinks they can is wrong. (or will be wrong more times than they are correct.)
regarding this to....Eddy from www.crossingwallstreet.com sold LUK from his buy list this year. LUK is up 17%. His portfolio is still up 5.76%. There are lots of ways to be right in picking good stocks...and there are lots of ways to be wrong.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Option Update
At this point now 8 of the 20 buy list stocks on the option trade are above the strike price.
(ORCL,LUK,KO,ITW,GE,BBBY,AFL,BDX.)
Not only will we lose the gain above the strike, but the covered calls are now worth more.
(ORCL,LUK,KO,ITW,GE,BBBY,AFL,BDX.)
Not only will we lose the gain above the strike, but the covered calls are now worth more.
JPM sticks knife into MF.
Ouch.
The delays contributed to a serious cash shortage at MF Global, according to people familiar with the matter. These people say the firm started trading one day in late October with $600 million in cash and spent the whole day selling securities, only to end with just $200 million in cash.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mf-global-jpmorgan-again-center-002846254.html
The delays contributed to a serious cash shortage at MF Global, according to people familiar with the matter. These people say the firm started trading one day in late October with $600 million in cash and spent the whole day selling securities, only to end with just $200 million in cash.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mf-global-jpmorgan-again-center-002846254.html
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