The purpose of this blog is to track 20 common stocks for a full year. The idea is to beat the S & P 500 like a mutual fund without the very high churn rate. These stocks will be held in a portfolio until next December 31.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Buy List for Jan

Our Buy List ended the month up 5.21%.
Our next milestone will be option expiration for Feb.

Oh yes,  Facebook is going to file for an IPO tomorrow.
Don't get caught in the hype.  Next year at this time will be an excellent buy opportunity for Facebook.
It is my guess that you will be able to buy twice as many shares next year for the same money as at the close of the IPO date. Again, that is my guess.

Nobody can teach this kind of economics......

http://www.lettersofnote.com/2012/01/to-my-old-master.html

A letter from a former slave to his master...147 years ago.

As to my freedom, which you say I can have, there is nothing to be gained on that score, as I got my free papers in 1864 from the Provost-Marshal-General of the Department of Nashville. Mandy says she would be afraid to go back without some proof that you were disposed to treat us justly and kindly; and we have concluded to test your sincerity by asking you to send us our wages for the time we served you. This will make us forget and forgive old scores, and rely on your justice and friendship in the future. I served you faithfully for thirty-two years, and Mandy twenty years. At twenty-five dollars a month for me, and two dollars a week for Mandy, our earnings would amount to eleven thousand six hundred and eighty dollars. Add to this the interest for the time our wages have been kept back, and deduct what you paid for our clothing, and three doctor's visits to me, and pulling a tooth for Mandy, and the balance will show what we are in justice entitled to. Please send the money by Adams's Express, in care of V. Winters, Esq., Dayton, Ohio. If you fail to pay us for faithful labors in the past, we can have little faith in your promises in the future. We trust the good Maker has opened your eyes to the wrongs which you and your fathers have done to me and my fathers, in making us toil for you for generations without recompense. Here I draw my wages every Saturday night; but in Tennessee there was never any pay-day for the negroes any more than for the horses and cows. Surely there will be a day of reckoning for those who defraud the laborer of his hire.

Monday, January 30, 2012

In case you wish to add to the confusion....

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-davos-reutersmagazine-salmontre80q1g2-20120127,0,7331753.story


Felix Salmon is a writer who writes very well for English literature. This is not necessarily good for writing about financial news. My guess is that most people who read financial news would prefer bullet point to prose.


"On top of that, finance is particularly susceptible to the kind of hubris that one finds in people who think that if they've made millions of dollars, they must be the "smart money," with an edge not only over the public but even over their fellow bankers and financiers. That, in turn, sets up some very easy morality plays. When the inevitable nemesis arrives, the weaknesses of the erstwhile Masters of the Universe are exposed for all to see, and those of us whose job it is to Explain Finance take every opportunity to spell out exactly what these prideful men got wrong. They weren't smart, they were stupid!

"If very intelligent, successful, and aggressive men like Robert Rubin, John Thain, or Jon Corzine could be so stupid, then, realistically speaking, everybody was stupid. And if everybody was stupid, then, in reality, nobody was quite as stupid as we now think they were."


    Frankly,  I am more of a Michael Lewis kind of guy.

MF Fine to Fail in just 1 week

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-30/mf-global-told-s-p-it-had-never-been-stronger-one-week-before-collapse.html

"A week before MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) collapsed, its chief financial officer told Standard & Poor’s in an e-mail that the futures broker had “never been stronger.”


“MF Global is in its strongest position ever,” Steenkamp told S&P on Oct. 24, according to the letter to Representative Randy Neugebauer, a Texas Republican, from Craig Parmelee, a managing director at S&P in New York."



Saturday, January 28, 2012

Buy List update


Our buy list is at 5.63%
we took a big hit with F when it increase revenue but missed the share target for earnings.
The street was expecting $.25 and they came in at $.20.


Thursday, January 26, 2012

Share buy back

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/most-share-buybacks-dont-pay-184507228.html

This report is about when companies choose to buy back their shares with the thought that the share price will increase with the buy back.  I think the right thing to do is to give the money as a dividend instead and let the shareholder decide to purchase more stock if they wish.


"According to the report, out of 380 companies in the S&P 500 that repurchased shares in at least five of the quarters, 84 companies bought shares when the stock price was high, and only 60 firms were able to buy low.
In addition, 72 companies saw poor returns within a year following share repurchases, versus 57 that saw good results."
Yesterday I read an article that stated Apple had $100 Billion in Cash and Securities.  This amounted to over $100.00 per share.  That would be a heck of a dividend.  


FDA approval list

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11381938/1/play-ithestreetsi-fda-drug-approval-contest.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA


More on this later......

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Groupon's IPO vs. Snake Oil

http://news.yahoo.com/groupon-criticized-literally-peddling-snake-oil-180143930.html

Groupon, like Facebook is another social network thingamaging that I just do not get. I have never been a coupon person, (I have been know to get coupon discounts without a coupon..."I am certain if we talk to the manager....")

Groupon went public at on Nov 11 @ $26.11 and currently is trading @ $20.08.
It has had a high of $31 and a low of $14.85 and its market cap is $12+ Billion.

This article states..."A complaint reviewed by the London-based Advertising Standards Authority scolded the Chicago-based deals site's U.K. affiliate, MyCity Deal, for falsely promoting the effects of "Wrinkle Killer Snake Serum" that the ad copy said offered "temporary freeze-like effects on the face muscles" and "leaves the skin looking younger." After what sounds like a pretty scientific study of the snake oil's effects, the ASA deemed the ad "misleading" and subsequently forbade Groupon from running it again."


The comparison between snake oil sales and Groupon's IPO is simply too easy to pass up.  I will be looking out for the Youtube video of the look on people's faces when they discover that either purchase does not live up to the claim.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Facebook's IPO......

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/blog/morning-roundup/2012/01/facebook-list-top-10-hated-companies.html
  This article states that Facebook is one of the top 10 most hated companies in the USA.  Really??
I do not have a Facebook account. But in the top 10 most hated companies? What do they do to make people hate them so much?  My thought on this is really about the IPO that is pending for Facebook.
http://venturebeat.com/2011/09/27/facebook-valuation-sharespost/

   Facebook is valued at between $80-$100 billion.  I think that this valuation is based on the captivity of the audience and potential advertising. But the barrier to entry in this field is simply a web portal. If anyone is going to rely on the faithfulness of the Facebook consumer to remain Facebook consumers, I think they are mistaken.
And when you are starting out on the top 10 list of hated companies that does not seem to help matters much.
I am certain that this is well known to people smarter than me, but I am looking forward to the IPO myself, for the same reason I like to watch auto racing.

Buy List so far....

Our buy list is up 5.64%...

On the covered call play, 9 of our stocks are above the strike price by a total of
by $179,470.  You may remember that the options sold for $155K. So that will be
25K left on the table.   If the Feb option expiration date comes, we will track these sales
and determine a re-entry point back into the stock. I am thinking that this re-entry point should be
at or below our initial purchase price.   It is impossible to time the market. Anyone who thinks they can is wrong. (or will be wrong more times than they are correct.)

regarding this to....Eddy from www.crossingwallstreet.com sold LUK from his buy list this year. LUK is up 17%. His portfolio is still up 5.76%.  There are lots of ways to be right in picking good stocks...and there are lots of ways to be wrong.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Option Update

At this point now 8 of the 20 buy list stocks on the option trade are above the strike price.
(ORCL,LUK,KO,ITW,GE,BBBY,AFL,BDX.)

Not only will we lose the gain above the strike, but the covered calls are now worth more.

JPM sticks knife into MF.

Ouch.

The delays contributed to a serious cash shortage at MF Global, according to people familiar with the matter. These people say the firm started trading one day in late October with $600 million in cash and spent the whole day selling securities, only to end with just $200 million in cash.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mf-global-jpmorgan-again-center-002846254.html


Sunday, January 15, 2012

Che Guevara and Mercedes Benz



I do not wish to make a social commentary about the contributions to mankind by either Mercedes-Benz or Che Guevara, but it is my feeling that for both it is more about self serving profit rather than any kind of decency for human conditions.

That said, at the CES convention in Las Vegas last week Mercedes unveiled an advertisement for their company using an image of Guevara with a Mercedes star on his beret. How supposedly sophisticated companies can make such embarrassing tactical marketing blunders is unimaginable and leads me to believe it was intentional “Guerrilla” marketing. (Pun intended).

(It reminds me of when I went to visit the Lake Powell visitor center in Arizona and books by both Everett Ruess and Edward Abbey were prominently on display. Everett Ruess did not live long enough to see the Glen Canyon Dam, but Abbey hated it and would have blown it up had he had the means.)

A little research by Mercedes would have revealed a controversial figure associated with hard-line communism rather than commercial luxury automobiles. The easiest and most cliche comparison would be using Adolf Hitler to advertise for anything but I would like to propose a twist to this faux pas by stating that it would be similarly poor form for the Iranian government to use Albert Einstein's image to try and sell the value of their nuclear power program. 




Saturday, January 14, 2012

Covered Calls

Covered Calls are an excellent way to get more bang for the buck.
A covered call sells an option to purchase the stock at a set price.
In our case the covered calls we sold made $155K in profit.
The key to this is that if the stock goes above the strike price we will lose
the opportunity for that extra value.
If the stock is below the strike price the option expires worthlessly.

I picked the Feb 12 option expiration date for this first round of Covered Call sales.
I added a new page on top to include the spreadsheet of the option play.

Please remember that this does not include commissions for the option purchase.



How Small Can an IPOD get?

Very Small.

 This article is about magnetic storage. If you are not stunned by the fact that an Ipod can store +/-5000 songs, then this will not mean much to you.

"Until now, the most advanced magnetic storage systems have needed about one million atoms to store a digital 1 or 0. The new achievement is the product of a heated international race between elite physics laboratories to explore the properties of magnetic materials at a far smaller scale.


Researchers at I.B.M. have stored and retrieved digital 1s and 0s from an array of just 12 atoms, pushing the boundaries of the magnetic storage of information to the edge of what is possible."


Later today I will be racking leaves and my wife will ask me, "Honey, what are you mumbling about?"  When I answer," Atomic level magnetic storage", she will think I am being sarcastic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/science/smaller-magnetic-materials-push-boundaries-of-nanotechnology.html?_r=1

Thursday, January 12, 2012

The January Effect

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_effect

While I feel so good about our buy list, I must post about the "January Effect."
Historically stocks rise in January.  


"The most common theory explaining this phenomenon is that individual investors, who are income tax-sensitive and who disproportionately hold small stocks, sell stocks for tax reasons at year end (such as to claim a capital loss) and reinvest after the first of the year. Another cause is the payment of year end bonuses in January. Some of this bonus money is used to purchase stocks, driving up prices. The January effect does not always materialize; for example, small stocks underperformed large stocks in January 1982, 1987, 1989 and 1990.[3]"




There are other effects that create calendar markings on the stock market. Another one is "Leave in May and Stay Away." 


Buy list update

Our buy list is up 3.27%
It is lead by LUK which is up 12.27%

Monday, January 9, 2012

Self-Managed Tomatoes…The Chris Rufer Story..



My travels for my job requires me to visit quite a few agricultural processing plants.  As I was researching  I came upon a website started by the owner of a couple of these plants.


Chris Rufer began his professional career as a one-man owner/operator trucking company hauling tomatoes from field to factory during his summer breaks while attending UCLA. His entrepreneurial spirit and tireless drive drove him grow his trucking operation, and to, in 1982, forge a partnership with a group of tomato growers to build a tomato factory of their own—not just any tomato factory, but a revolutionary facility, utilizing concepts that Chris developed during his years driving in and out of--and diligently studying--tomato factories.

The vision of Self-Management was born in Chris’ mind early on in his professional career, with roots trailing back to his days studying economics at the University of California, Los Angeles. He recognized that the most enduring, and the most effective, human organizations are built on principles of Self-Management and total responsibility, and that those principles are also the most efficient and effective principles for organizing commercial relationships.

http://self-managementinstitute.org/

This site has excellent reading.


Sunday, January 8, 2012

Kodak...The future...

http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/news/2012/01/08/report-kodak-to-focus-on-printing.html

The second thing Kodak is most famous for after being the "King of the Camera" is that it completely missed the digital camera revolution even as the tide was destroying it's beachhead. It ranks with Schwinn turning down an investment into a small company that put fat tires on 10 speed bikes and Xerox missing everything about computers..  Now the company is going to try to transform itself into a printer company.

   

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Kahn Brothers

http://www.kahnbrothers.com/

Yesterday CrossingWallSteet linked an interview with Irving Kahn, a 106 year old founder of the Kahn Brothers.  On web site it states.

"NET WORKING CAPITAL DISCOUNTS are stocks selling below net working capital per share after subtracting all long-term liabilities. In other words, if you subtract all current liabilities from all current assets, then further subtract all long-term liabilities and, finally, divide the remaining figure by the number of shares outstanding, you derive the net working capital per share. If a stock sells for less than this figure, you have an attractive price that always warrants a thorough investigation."

So I ran this formula on our buy-list.



Date 1/7/12



Ticker Price Outstanding Shares(m) Current Assets (TH) Total Liabilities(TH) Net Working Cap/S
AFL $44.24 466.790 $2,782,000.00 $89,983,000.00 -$186.81
BDX $73.03 214.890 $4,668,331.00 $5,602,253.00 -$4.35
BBBY $59.94 241.250 $4,073,838.00 $1,714,534.00 $9.78
DF $10.56 187.700 $181,612.00 $6,457,142.00 -$33.43
F $11.71 3,800.000 $48,875,000.00 $165,360,000.00 -$30.65
GE $18.65 10,560.000 $161,994,000.00 $751,216,000.00 -$55.80
HCP $40.34 407.790 $3,110,390.00 $5,374,556.00 -$5.55
INTC $25.25 5,090.000 $31,611,000.00 $13,756,000.00 $3.51
ITW $47.79 483.190 $5,968,401.00 $6,869,027.00 -$1.86
KKR $13.40 223.280 $38,081,403.00 $37,064,664.00 $4.55
KO $68.93 2,270.000 $21,579,000.00 $41,918,000.00 -$8.96
LUK $23.89 244.580 $985,590.00 $2,393,540.00 -$5.76
MKC $50.38 132.280 $1,015,900.00 $1,966,000.00 -$7.18
MO $28.72 2,060.000 $5,981,000.00 $32,178,000.00 -$12.72
NICK $12.85 11.960 $232,182.00 $128,430.00 $8.67
ORCL $26.93 5,030.000 $39,174,000.00 $33,290,000.00 $1.17
PG $66.36 2,750.000 $21,970,000.00 $70,714,000.00 -$17.73
RAVN $66.36 18.100 $128,181.00 $46,546.00 $4.51
RLI $73.64 21.080 $501,341.00 $1,723,216.00 -$57.96
SYK $51.50 382.670 $7,631,400.00 $3,721,500.00 $10.22








NICK is by far the winner of this race. This is a very difficult measure to hurdle.   The idea is that the company has very few long term assets such as plant/building and goodwill, but more working capital per share than the price of the stock.

One week down...

Our buy list is up 1.76% to the S &P 500 1.58....
It is important to remember with the stock market that
it is not the joy of receiving, but the absolute pain of giving back
that matters most.
The buy list shows a gain of $179K (I think there is an error in my spreadsheet.)
A smart person might sell all now and relax on a beach for the rest of the year.
or sell $179K of securities and lock in a profit....
The problem is that the only people who can time the market are inside traders and they can only do it for a couple of trades.  The rest of us have to suffer with the unknown.

Friday, January 6, 2012

No title required...


Stocks to Avoid..One's with higher target prices..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgan-avoid-these-11-stocks-2012-01-04

I found this article today.

J.P. Morgan analysts Thomas Lee, Daniel M. McElligot and Katherine C. Khor published a report entitled "US Equity Strategy FLASH" on December 9, 2011. They have listed a number of stocks to avoid that have high exposure to the European markets. All these stocks generate more than 27% of their sales from the European markets. Also, all of these stocks have been given either a neutral rating or an underweight rating by J.P. Morgan.


Great....Thanks for the tip....
Here is a comment listed about 7 of the 11 stocks to avoid........


ITW...(on the Buy List) "Shares of the company are currently trading at $46.9 and are expected to go north of $51 by the end of next year."
Also....
EBAY..Shares of eBay are currently trading around $30 and are expected to go north of $38 by the end of next year. 
CSC..Shares of Computer Sciences Corp. are currently trading around $23.6 and are expected to reach $27 by the end of next year. 
XOM... Shares of Exxon Mobil are currently trading around $85 and are expected to reach $88 by the end of next year.
WTW..Shares of the Weight Watchers are currently trading around $56 and are expected to go north of $71 by the end of next year. 
WAT..Shares of the company are currently trading around $74 and are expected to go north $83 by the end of next year.
CCE..Shares of the company are currently trading at $25.9 and are expected to go north of $31 by the end of next year...





Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Blog Day One...

Great day for almost anyone who owned equities today......
On a $10 million investment, the portfolio is up $124,000.
Hmmm....It probably is a good time to sell.....

Monday, January 2, 2012

McKesson Corp. A new place to "Occupy"

This is an article about the compensation package for the CEO of McKesson Corp.
http://news.yahoo.com/145-million-ceo-094500454.html

"Then I read him Hammergren’s annual total compensation payouts, taken from the company’s public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission: $46 million in 2011; $55 million in 2010; $37 million in 2009; another $41 million in 2008. Hammergren hadn’t founded the company. Wall Street analysts covering McKesson can tell you of the disappointments and miscues that have marked his tenure. But his haul in the 13 years he has been running McKesson? More than $750 million, according to data provided by Equilar, an executive-compensation data firm.
For a moment, Reda is silent. “$40 million, $50 million a year is excessive, no matter what the yardstick,” he says. The average pay package for a CEO running a top 100 company these days, Reda says, is around $12 million. That includes everything, from salary to stock awards to contributions to a retirement account. Yet last year McKesson contributed more than $13 million just to Hammergren’s pension, according to company documents. Among the other perks he enjoys: a chauffeur to drive his company car, free use of the corporate jet for personal travel, and an extra $17,000 a year to pay for a financial planner because handling all those hundreds of millions is no doubt complicated stuff.
“He doesn’t leave anything on the table, does he?” Reda asks."

Hurray, I have my first follower....

Oh....It is my sister...