The purpose of this blog is to track 20 common stocks for a full year. The idea is to beat the S & P 500 like a mutual fund without the very high churn rate. These stocks will be held in a portfolio until next December 31.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Kahn Brothers

http://www.kahnbrothers.com/

Yesterday CrossingWallSteet linked an interview with Irving Kahn, a 106 year old founder of the Kahn Brothers.  On web site it states.

"NET WORKING CAPITAL DISCOUNTS are stocks selling below net working capital per share after subtracting all long-term liabilities. In other words, if you subtract all current liabilities from all current assets, then further subtract all long-term liabilities and, finally, divide the remaining figure by the number of shares outstanding, you derive the net working capital per share. If a stock sells for less than this figure, you have an attractive price that always warrants a thorough investigation."

So I ran this formula on our buy-list.



Date 1/7/12



Ticker Price Outstanding Shares(m) Current Assets (TH) Total Liabilities(TH) Net Working Cap/S
AFL $44.24 466.790 $2,782,000.00 $89,983,000.00 -$186.81
BDX $73.03 214.890 $4,668,331.00 $5,602,253.00 -$4.35
BBBY $59.94 241.250 $4,073,838.00 $1,714,534.00 $9.78
DF $10.56 187.700 $181,612.00 $6,457,142.00 -$33.43
F $11.71 3,800.000 $48,875,000.00 $165,360,000.00 -$30.65
GE $18.65 10,560.000 $161,994,000.00 $751,216,000.00 -$55.80
HCP $40.34 407.790 $3,110,390.00 $5,374,556.00 -$5.55
INTC $25.25 5,090.000 $31,611,000.00 $13,756,000.00 $3.51
ITW $47.79 483.190 $5,968,401.00 $6,869,027.00 -$1.86
KKR $13.40 223.280 $38,081,403.00 $37,064,664.00 $4.55
KO $68.93 2,270.000 $21,579,000.00 $41,918,000.00 -$8.96
LUK $23.89 244.580 $985,590.00 $2,393,540.00 -$5.76
MKC $50.38 132.280 $1,015,900.00 $1,966,000.00 -$7.18
MO $28.72 2,060.000 $5,981,000.00 $32,178,000.00 -$12.72
NICK $12.85 11.960 $232,182.00 $128,430.00 $8.67
ORCL $26.93 5,030.000 $39,174,000.00 $33,290,000.00 $1.17
PG $66.36 2,750.000 $21,970,000.00 $70,714,000.00 -$17.73
RAVN $66.36 18.100 $128,181.00 $46,546.00 $4.51
RLI $73.64 21.080 $501,341.00 $1,723,216.00 -$57.96
SYK $51.50 382.670 $7,631,400.00 $3,721,500.00 $10.22








NICK is by far the winner of this race. This is a very difficult measure to hurdle.   The idea is that the company has very few long term assets such as plant/building and goodwill, but more working capital per share than the price of the stock.

One week down...

Our buy list is up 1.76% to the S &P 500 1.58....
It is important to remember with the stock market that
it is not the joy of receiving, but the absolute pain of giving back
that matters most.
The buy list shows a gain of $179K (I think there is an error in my spreadsheet.)
A smart person might sell all now and relax on a beach for the rest of the year.
or sell $179K of securities and lock in a profit....
The problem is that the only people who can time the market are inside traders and they can only do it for a couple of trades.  The rest of us have to suffer with the unknown.

Friday, January 6, 2012

No title required...


Stocks to Avoid..One's with higher target prices..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgan-avoid-these-11-stocks-2012-01-04

I found this article today.

J.P. Morgan analysts Thomas Lee, Daniel M. McElligot and Katherine C. Khor published a report entitled "US Equity Strategy FLASH" on December 9, 2011. They have listed a number of stocks to avoid that have high exposure to the European markets. All these stocks generate more than 27% of their sales from the European markets. Also, all of these stocks have been given either a neutral rating or an underweight rating by J.P. Morgan.


Great....Thanks for the tip....
Here is a comment listed about 7 of the 11 stocks to avoid........


ITW...(on the Buy List) "Shares of the company are currently trading at $46.9 and are expected to go north of $51 by the end of next year."
Also....
EBAY..Shares of eBay are currently trading around $30 and are expected to go north of $38 by the end of next year. 
CSC..Shares of Computer Sciences Corp. are currently trading around $23.6 and are expected to reach $27 by the end of next year. 
XOM... Shares of Exxon Mobil are currently trading around $85 and are expected to reach $88 by the end of next year.
WTW..Shares of the Weight Watchers are currently trading around $56 and are expected to go north of $71 by the end of next year. 
WAT..Shares of the company are currently trading around $74 and are expected to go north $83 by the end of next year.
CCE..Shares of the company are currently trading at $25.9 and are expected to go north of $31 by the end of next year...





Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Blog Day One...

Great day for almost anyone who owned equities today......
On a $10 million investment, the portfolio is up $124,000.
Hmmm....It probably is a good time to sell.....

Monday, January 2, 2012

McKesson Corp. A new place to "Occupy"

This is an article about the compensation package for the CEO of McKesson Corp.
http://news.yahoo.com/145-million-ceo-094500454.html

"Then I read him Hammergren’s annual total compensation payouts, taken from the company’s public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission: $46 million in 2011; $55 million in 2010; $37 million in 2009; another $41 million in 2008. Hammergren hadn’t founded the company. Wall Street analysts covering McKesson can tell you of the disappointments and miscues that have marked his tenure. But his haul in the 13 years he has been running McKesson? More than $750 million, according to data provided by Equilar, an executive-compensation data firm.
For a moment, Reda is silent. “$40 million, $50 million a year is excessive, no matter what the yardstick,” he says. The average pay package for a CEO running a top 100 company these days, Reda says, is around $12 million. That includes everything, from salary to stock awards to contributions to a retirement account. Yet last year McKesson contributed more than $13 million just to Hammergren’s pension, according to company documents. Among the other perks he enjoys: a chauffeur to drive his company car, free use of the corporate jet for personal travel, and an extra $17,000 a year to pay for a financial planner because handling all those hundreds of millions is no doubt complicated stuff.
“He doesn’t leave anything on the table, does he?” Reda asks."

Hurray, I have my first follower....

Oh....It is my sister...